@InCollection{TorresLapoGama:2018:FuClCh,
               author = "Torres, Roger Rodrigues and Lapola, David Montenegro and Gamarra, 
                         Nancy Laura Rios",
                title = "Future climate change in the Caatinga",
            booktitle = "Caatinga: the largest tropical dry forest region in South 
                         America",
            publisher = "Springer",
                 year = "2018",
               editor = "Silva, Jos{\'e} Maria Cardoso da and Leal, Inara R. and 
                         Tabarelli, Marcelo",
                pages = "383--410",
             keywords = "Climate change, Northeast Brazil, Caatinga, Drought, 
                         Vulnerability, Impacts.",
             abstract = "This chapter discusses the general aspects of climate variability 
                         and climate change in South America, with a special focus on 
                         Brazils northeast region in which the Caatinga is located. It 
                         describes the main findings reported in the Intergovernmental 
                         Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5), 
                         and provides a brief review of the literature addressing climate 
                         change in northeast Brazil. In addition, simulations and 
                         projections of temperature and precipitation changes provided by 
                         24 state-of-the art Earth System Models from the Coupled Model 
                         Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset that were analyzed 
                         in the IPCC AR5 are assessed. For scenarios of future projections, 
                         the near surface air temperature should increase by at least 1 °C 
                         for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 (low 
                         radiative forcing scenario) and by 4 °C for the RCP8.5 (high 
                         radiative forcing scenario) by the end of the twenty-first 
                         century. For the Caatinga, there is a considerable spread amongst 
                         rainfall change projections of ±1 mm day\−1, relative to 
                         19611990, making it hard to identify any tendency in projected 
                         rainfall change. However, the RCP8.5 forcing scenario shows a 
                         slight rainfall reduction of about 0.3 mm day\−1 by 2100. 
                         Among the most affected regions in Brazil, the Amazon and 
                         northeast regions appear to be large hotspots. For some modeling 
                         studies, projections of the future climate show a savannization of 
                         parts of the Amazon and desertification of the Caatinga region, 
                         with potential adverse impacts on biodiversity, supply and quality 
                         of water resources, carbon storage, and the provision of other 
                         ecosystem services.",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Itajub{\'a} (UNIFEI)} and {Universidade 
                         Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                  doi = "10.1007/978-3-319-68339-3_15",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68339-3_15",
                 isbn = "978-331968339-3",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "torres_future.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}